The recent surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has sent shockwaves through Australia’s political landscape, particularly affecting the traditional major parties. In the latest polls, One Nation has climbed dramatically, reaching levels that place it within striking distance of Labor and well ahead of the Coalition. This development validates many warnings Hanson has issued over the years about voter dissatisfaction with the establishment.

Pauline Hanson has long positioned herself as a voice for ordinary Australians who feel ignored by mainstream politicians in Canberra. Her consistent messaging on issues like immigration, economic pressures, and national identity appears to be resonating more strongly now than ever before. The phrase “I told you so” captures her sentiment perfectly as recent data shows her party gaining ground rapidly.

One key poll from DemosAU, conducted in mid-February 2026, revealed One Nation at 28 percent primary vote support, up four points from the previous month. This places the party just one point behind Labor on 29 percent, while the Coalition languishes at 21 percent. Such figures represent a historic shift in voter preferences across the country.

The Coalition, traditionally the home for conservative voters, finds itself squeezed from the right by One Nation’s rise. Many analysts point to internal divisions within the Liberal-National partnership as a contributing factor to this erosion of support. Hanson’s party is drawing votes from disaffected Coalition supporters who seek a more uncompromising stance on key policy areas.

Labor, currently in government under Anthony Albanese, also faces pressure from this populist wave. Despite holding a slim lead in some surveys, the governing party has seen its primary vote soften as One Nation attracts voters frustrated with economic conditions and perceived policy failures. This dynamic challenges Labor’s ability to maintain its base in traditional working-class areas.

Guardian Essential polling further underscores the breadth of One Nation’s appeal, indicating that more than half of Australians are either definitely or open to voting for the party at the next election. Around 25 percent say they would definitely back One Nation, with another 33 percent open to the idea, leaving only 28 percent firmly opposed. This level of receptivity is remarkable given past controversies surrounding Hanson.

Hanson’s outspoken comments on topics such as Muslim integration have not deterred this growing support; in some cases, they may have amplified it among certain demographics. The poll results come amid ongoing debates about immigration levels, cultural changes, and national security concerns that dominate public discourse in Australia today.

Women voters represent one surprising area of strength for One Nation in recent data. Polling breakdowns show the party leading among female respondents in some surveys, with 29 percent support compared to Labor’s 27 percent and the Coalition’s 21 percent. This shift suggests Hanson’s messaging on family, cost-of-living issues, and community safety is cutting through effectively.

Regional and rural voters continue to form the backbone of One Nation’s support base. Areas outside major capital cities have historically favored the party, and current trends indicate this advantage is widening. Queensland, in particular, remains a stronghold where Hanson has built her political career over decades.

The surge also reflects broader disillusionment with the two-party system that has dominated Australian federal politics for generations. Voters increasingly view Labor and the Coalition as part of the same elite establishment, failing to address everyday concerns like housing affordability, energy costs, and job security in a changing economy.

Economic pressures play a significant role in fueling this political realignment. Rising living expenses, stagnant wages in some sectors, and perceptions of unfairness in resource distribution have created fertile ground for populist appeals. One Nation capitalizes on these frustrations by promising straightforward solutions without the compromises often associated with major-party governance.

Immigration policy stands out as a central driver behind the poll movements. Hanson has consistently advocated for reduced intake levels and stronger border controls, arguments that gain traction when public sentiment shifts toward prioritizing Australian jobs and infrastructure capacity. Recent global events and domestic debates amplify these concerns nationwide.

The Coalition’s leadership changes and policy adjustments have failed to stem the flow of voters to One Nation. Even with new figures at the helm, the opposition struggles to differentiate itself clearly from the government while avoiding alienating its moderate base. This dilemma leaves space for Hanson’s more direct approach to flourish.

Labor’s challenges extend beyond primary vote losses to questions of preference flows in a potential election scenario. If One Nation maintains high support, preferences could decide outcomes in marginal seats across multiple states. This reality forces both major parties to recalibrate strategies ahead of the next federal contest, due by 2028.

Pauline Hanson’s personal approval ratings have also improved markedly in recent surveys. Her net approval climbed in some polls, reflecting a softening of negative perceptions among parts of the electorate. In preferred prime minister questions, she trails Albanese but outperforms Coalition leaders, highlighting her growing stature as a national figure.

Critics argue that One Nation’s rise represents a protest vote rather than genuine ideological alignment. They point to the party’s history of internal instability and controversial stances as barriers to long-term dominance. However, sustained polling gains suggest deeper dissatisfaction that transcends mere temporary rebellion.

Media coverage of Hanson’s resurgence varies widely, from alarmist warnings about populism to more neutral analyses of voter trends. Some outlets frame the surge as a wake-up call for establishment parties to address underlying grievances before they solidify further.

The impact on Senate composition could prove profound if current trends hold. One Nation already holds seats and stands to gain more under proportional representation, potentially wielding balance-of-power influence in the upper house. This prospect worries both Labor and the Coalition about legislative gridlock or forced concessions.

State-level polling mirrors federal patterns in some jurisdictions, with One Nation making inroads in places like Queensland and Tasmania. These gains signal a nationwide phenomenon rather than isolated regional discontent, broadening the threat to traditional power structures.

Hanson’s longevity in politics contributes to her current momentum. Surviving decades of scrutiny and comebacks has built a narrative of resilience and authenticity that resonates with voters tired of polished career politicians. Her straightforward communication style contrasts sharply with more scripted major-party messaging.

Cost-of-living crises exacerbate the appeal of parties promising quick fixes. One Nation’s focus on reducing government overreach, cutting taxes where possible, and protecting local industries aligns with public anxieties about financial pressures in everyday life.

Environmental policies also factor into the equation, as some voters perceive major parties as overly focused on climate targets at the expense of economic practicality. One Nation’s skepticism toward rapid transitions appeals to those in resource-dependent regions.

Social and cultural issues round out the picture, with debates over identity, free speech, and community cohesion driving support toward Hanson. Her willingness to tackle taboo subjects head-on attracts voters who feel mainstream discourse has become too constrained.

The next federal election will test whether this surge translates into seats or remains a polling phenomenon. Historical precedents show minor parties can peak and fade, but One Nation’s consistency over time sets it apart from flash-in-the-pan movements.

Both Labor and the Coalition must respond carefully to avoid further alienating their bases. Policy shifts too far right or left risk compounding losses, while ignoring the trends could prove even more damaging in the long run.

Pauline Hanson’s “I told you so” moment underscores a pivotal shift in Australian politics. The 12% surge referenced in headlines symbolizes broader discontent that demands attention from all sides of the political spectrum.

As polls continue to evolve, the coming months will reveal whether this represents a temporary spike or a lasting realignment. For now, One Nation’s rise forces a reckoning with voter priorities that can no longer be dismissed or ignored by the major parties.

The shockwaves from this development extend beyond immediate electoral math to questions about the health of Australia’s democracy. When a once-marginal force approaches parity with governing parties, it signals profound underlying changes in public trust and expectations.

Ultimately, Pauline Hanson’s resurgence serves as a mirror reflecting societal frustrations accumulated over years. Addressing those root causes may prove the most effective counter to further populist gains in the future.