As the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs ignite the Round of 12 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 21, 2025, the “Magic Mile” beckons with its flat, tricky banking and tire-eating surface— a track where strategy trumps brute speed. After Christopher Bell’s wire-to-wire mastery at Bristol last week, all eyes turn to whether the Joe Gibbs Racing phenom repeats as Loudon conqueror, or if veterans like Denny Hamlin reclaim glory, underdogs like Bubba Wallace surge, or Hendrick stars Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott finally break through. My pick? Bell to hoist the lobster trophy once more, but let’s break down the chaos.
Bell (+330 odds via Caesars) enters as the consensus favorite, projected by NASCAR’s Racing Insights for a fifth 2025 win. He’s swept the last two New Hampshire races in the Next Gen era, leading 83% of laps across Toyota’s dominant streak here. His No. 20 Rheem Camry thrives on short flats, with pit maestro Adam Stevens nailing stops amid expected tire wear. “Loudon’s my playground,” Bell quipped post-qualifying, where he nabbed P3 behind Joey Logano’s pole and Ryan Blaney’s P2. With 20 points above the cutline, a win clinches his Round of 8 spot, easing pressure on JGR teammate Hamlin (+550), who’s atop standings at +26 but winless at Loudon since 2017—despite three career triumphs.
Don’t sleep on Bubba Wallace (+2200), teetering at +1 above elimination. The 23XI ace snagged consecutive top-10s here pre-2024 wreck, and his Bristol stage points haul shows playoff grit. Co-owner Denny Hamlin mentors him closely; a top-5 vaults Wallace to safety, potentially outshining Hamlin’s conservative run. Larson (+800), Hendrick’s points co-leader at +24, boasts three runner-ups but zero wins—his No. 5’s aero edge suits the flat oval, yet recent duds (P7 Bristol) raise doubts. Chase Elliott (+2200), +5 above the line, starts 27th after qualifying woes; his road-course wizardry falters on ovals, with just three top-10s in 11 tries. Still, NAPA’s backing and Elliott’s poise could spark a charge.
Blaney (+600) and Briscoe (+800) lurk as spoilers—Blaney’s hot streak (top-10s since Dover) meets a Loudon curse (best: P5), while Briscoe’s surging No. 19 eyes his 451 playoff laps led. Weather? Clear skies, 70°F—prime for multi-stage fireworks. My bold call: Bell wires it from green, fending Hamlin’s late surge, with Wallace P3 for the upset. Wallace to shine as dark horse, stealing stage points and breathing room. Who ya got? The Granite State’s ready to rumble.
