In what political analysts are already calling one of the most seismic shifts in Australian public sentiment in decades, a landmark nationwide opinion poll released this morning has delivered a brutal verdict on the country’s two major party leaders.

Sussan Ley, who assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party following Peter Dutton’s shock resignation in late 2025, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, head of the Labor government since 2022, have both been hammered by historically low approval ratings and widespread voter disillusionment.

The Newspoll survey, conducted between January 6–10 among 2,500 respondents, shows Ley’s personal approval rating sitting at a dismal 29%, while disapproval has soared to 62%.

Prime Minister Albanese fares only marginally better, with 34% approval and 58% disapproval – figures that represent the lowest combined leadership satisfaction for the two major parties since records began in the modern era.

The poll comes at a critical juncture. Labor entered 2026 already battered by persistent cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability crises, energy policy controversies, and accusations of broken promises on climate action.

The Albanese government’s decision to push forward with a controversial multinational tax deal while domestic energy prices remain elevated has fueled perceptions of disconnect from ordinary Australians.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party, still reeling from internal divisions and three consecutive federal election defeats (2019, 2022, and the anticipated 2025 loss that never materialized due to early caretaker conventions), has struggled to present a coherent alternative vision under Ley’s leadership.

Ley, a long-time moderate from New South Wales who rose to prominence during the Turnbull and Morrison eras, was widely seen as a “safe pair of hands” when she narrowly defeated Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie in the December 2025 leadership ballot. Yet the poll suggests voters are not convinced.

Comments such as “out of touch,” “no clear direction,” and “same old Liberal problems” dominated open-ended responses. Her handling of the opposition’s response to the government’s cost-of-living package has been described as “timid” and “ineffective” by even some Coalition insiders.

For Albanese, the numbers are equally sobering. Despite steering Australia through the tail-end of global inflation and avoiding a technical recession, the Prime Minister is increasingly viewed as a manager rather than a visionary.

The government’s ambitious housing targets have fallen short, with new home approvals lagging far behind promised levels. The ongoing debate over nuclear energy – which Labor continues to oppose while the Coalition and One Nation push for it – has further alienated voters in regional and outer-suburban seats.

But the real earthquake in the poll lies elsewhere.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has recorded an astonishing surge, capturing what the pollsters describe as “over 2 million votes of national support” when respondents were asked who they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow.

In primary vote terms, One Nation has jumped to an unprecedented 18.4% nationally – a figure that would translate into potentially 20–25 seats in the House of Representatives under current boundaries, making it the third force in federal politics by a wide margin.

The result is nothing short of historic. One Nation’s previous peak primary vote came in 2016 at 5.5% under Malcolm Turnbull’s government. Today’s numbers represent more than a tripling of that support in less than a decade.

Hanson’s relentless focus on immigration control, cost-of-living relief for pensioners and working families, opposition to “woke” policies, and a strident anti-nuclear-skeptic-but-pro-coal stance has resonated deeply in Queensland, regional New South Wales, Western Australia, and outer Melbourne and Sydney suburbs.

“People are sick of the same two tired parties promising the world and delivering crumbs,” Hanson declared in a fiery press conference in Ipswich this morning. “They want someone who will actually fight for Australian jobs, Australian borders, and Australian values.

Two million Australians have just told Canberra loud and clear: we’ve had enough.”

The poll’s methodology has already come under scrutiny. Some Labor and Liberal strategists claim the sample over-represented regional and outer-metropolitan voters – demographics where One Nation traditionally performs strongly.

Yet even adjusted models from rival pollsters YouGov and Resolve Political Monitor show One Nation in double digits, with support ranging between 14% and 19%.

The implications for the political landscape are profound.

If the current trend holds into the second half of 2026 – when the next federal election must be called by May 2028 at the latest – Australia could be heading toward a hung parliament or, more dramatically, a realignment in which the major parties are forced to negotiate with a significantly empowered crossbench led by One Nation.

For Albanese, the danger is clear: continued erosion in Queensland and Western Australia could wipe out dozens of Labor seats.

For Ley, the challenge is existential: if One Nation continues to siphon conservative voters in regional and outer-suburban seats, the Liberal Party risks being reduced to an inner-city and affluent-suburban rump.

Political commentator Laura Tingle described the moment as “the most significant warning shot since Pauline Hanson first exploded onto the scene in 1996.” Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, speaking on Sky News, urged the Coalition to “stop pretending One Nation voters don’t exist and start addressing the issues that drive them into Pauline’s arms.”

Meanwhile, the Greens – who polled at 13% – have also gained ground, particularly among younger urban voters furious over Labor’s perceived retreat on climate ambition.

As the political class digests the numbers, one thing is certain: the era of comfortable two-party dominance is under serious threat. Pauline Hanson, once dismissed as a fringe figure, now commands the loyalty of millions.

Sussan Ley and Anthony Albanese, leaders of the traditional major parties, face the toughest fight of their careers to convince Australians that the old duopoly still deserves their trust.

The next few months will be decisive. Will the major parties pivot to address the deep-seated frustrations laid bare by today’s poll? Or will Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continue its relentless march toward becoming the kingmaker – or perhaps even the dominant force – of Australian politics?

For now, the message from the electorate is unmistakable: Australia is angry, disillusioned, and ready for radical change.