CANBERRA SHAKES: Pauline Hanson and One Nation Surge in Polls, Overtaking Coalition as Second Most Popular Party
Australia’s political landscape has been dramatically upended by a stunning surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party. Recent polls show the party claiming around 26-27% primary vote nationally, surpassing the fractured Coalition and positioning it as the second most popular force behind Labor.
This dramatic rise follows Labor’s strong 2025 election victory, leaving the opposition in disarray. One Nation has capitalized on widespread voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures, high immigration levels, and perceived failures in net-zero policies that many see as burdensome.
Pauline Hanson has boldly declared that nothing will halt One Nation’s momentum toward becoming the official opposition. Her confident rhetoric resonates strongly, especially among disillusioned voters seeking alternatives to the traditional major parties.
High-profile defections have bolstered One Nation’s credibility and appeal. Former Nationals leader and ex-deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce joined the party, bringing rural heavyweight influence and signaling deeper cracks in the Coalition.
Joyce’s move highlights internal Coalition turmoil, including leadership challenges and splits between Liberals and Nationals. These divisions have weakened the opposition, allowing One Nation to attract conservative voters feeling abandoned.
Gen X voters, often frustrated by economic stagnation and policy shifts, form a key demographic fueling the surge. Many express anger over housing affordability, energy costs, and what they view as elite-driven agendas ignoring everyday struggles.
In rural and regional areas, One Nation’s support climbs even higher, reaching up to 35% in some surveys. This strength threatens traditional Coalition heartlands, particularly Nationals-held seats in Queensland and New South Wales.
Analysts point to specific electorates where One Nation could challenge incumbents if trends hold. Seats like Wright, Capricornia, and Flynn show strong historical One Nation performances, now amplified by national momentum.
The party’s platform emphasizes slashing immigration, prioritizing Australian jobs, and rejecting what Hanson calls “woke” policies. These messages cut through in communities hit hardest by economic changes and perceived cultural shifts.
Labor, under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, remains ahead on primary votes at around 30-33%, but faces criticism for losing touch with working-class voters. Some polls show One Nation leading among lower-income groups.
The government has dismissed One Nation as an extremist outfit, warning against its divisive rhetoric on immigration and social issues. Officials argue the surge reflects temporary protest rather than sustainable support.
However, Hanson’s personal popularity has soared, with net favorability improving significantly in recent tracking. She now ranks as one of the most liked leaders in certain polls, outpacing Coalition figures.
Social media has amplified the movement, with slogans like “Pauline for PM” trending widely. Supporters share memes, videos, and rallies, creating a grassroots energy absent in major-party campaigns.
Critics caution that translating primary vote gains into seats remains challenging under Australia’s preferential system. One Nation often struggles with preference flows from other parties.
Historical precedents show minor parties surging mid-term but fading under scrutiny. One Nation’s past peaks, like in the late 1990s, faced backlash and internal issues that limited long-term growth.
Yet current conditions differ, with the Coalition in historic lows—some polls at 18-19%—and Labor governing after a landslide. This vacuum allows One Nation to consolidate conservative discontent.
State-level tests loom, including upcoming elections in Victoria and South Australia, where One Nation aims to build on federal momentum and win lower-house representation.
If successful, these wins could provide organizational strength, funding, and visibility for a federal push, potentially reshaping opposition dynamics.
Voter disillusionment with the two-party system runs deep, fueled by economic inequality, trust erosion, and policy gridlock. Many see major parties as interchangeable elites.
One Nation positions itself as the authentic voice of ordinary Australians, promising straightforward solutions over bureaucratic complexity. This populist appeal drives its rapid ascent.
The surge raises questions about Australia’s political realignment. Could conservative forces fragment permanently, or will the Coalition regroup to reclaim ground?
Experts warn that sustained high polling could force strategic responses from both Labor and the opposition, including policy shifts on immigration and economic relief.
For now, Pauline Hanson’s momentum appears unstoppable in the short term. Her party has transformed from fringe to formidable contender in record time.
The upcoming election cycle will test whether this surge endures or proves ephemeral. Either way, it has already shaken Canberra to its core.
Public discourse grows polarized, with debates intensifying over immigration, climate policy, and national identity. One Nation’s rise amplifies these fault lines.
As support spreads online and in communities, the big question lingers: Can One Nation break the two-party monopoly and redefine Australian politics for a new era?
The answer may hinge on how major parties respond to voter anger—and whether Hanson can convert enthusiasm into lasting electoral power.
This moment marks a pivotal shift, where traditional assumptions about Australian politics face their sternest challenge yet.
The answer may hinge on how major parties respond to voter anger—and whether Hanson can convert enthusiasm into lasting electoral power.
